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In this special guest feature, Carol Wells reviews the new book by Scott E. Page entitled “The Model Thinker.”

A hands-on reference for the working data scientist, “The Model Thinker” challenges us to consider that the historical methods we have used for data analysis are no longer adequate given the complexity of today’s world. The book opens by making the case for a new way of using mathematical models to solve problems, offers a close look at a number of the models, then closes with a pair of demonstrations of the method.

Author Scott Page asserts that we are still evaluating today’s far-reaching and abundant data the same way we did twenty-five years ago: That is, we look through our data, look through our models, find the single best fit, and apply.

The problem is that applying one model to a problem gets us only part of the story. A one-model solution has told us, for instance, that our country’s poor health is due to sugar consumption, or that Trump voters in 2016 were those who had been left behind economically. These are valid, but far from complete.

Page proposes a “many-model paradigm,” where we apply several mathematical models to a single problem. The idea is to replicate “the wisdom of the crowd” which, in groups like juries, has shown us that input from many sources tends to be more accurate, complete, and nuanced than input from a single source.

The book emphasizes social data, because, as the author notes, people are a special challenge. You can count on, say, carbon atoms to never violate the laws of physics. People are not so reliable. We have irrational biases. Sometimes we learn from opportunities or mistakes and change our behavior. Sometimes not so much.

Page is a professor of complex systems and quantitative social science at the University of Michigan. He writes in a straightforward fashion, punctuated with bursts of unusual metaphors, such as in the following:

Confronted with a complex system we cannot, to paraphrase Plato, carve the world at its joints. We can partially isolate the major causal trends and then explore how they are interwoven. In doing so, we will find that the data produced by our economic, political, and social systems exhibits coherence. Social data is more than sequences of incomprehensible hairballs that might have been spit up by the family cat.”

In the final chapter, Page demonstrates his method by tackling two real-world issues: the opioid epidemic and economic inequality. By applying the many-model paradigm to income inequality he illuminates many interlocking causes including economic development, sociological trends, political power, and the weight of history.

A single model can track the flow of money among the generations. Another can examine the factors involved in the disparity of the pay of educated and uneducated workers. Yet another can survey the rise of CEO pay relative to the pay of the average worker. This endeavor brings us gradually nearer to a complete picture.

In my own work I have looked at data relating to homelessness, and the many-model paradigm strikes me as potentially very useful. We already know some of the many causes include trauma, domestic violence, and local increases in rent. Shedding even more light on this difficult issue would be a help.

What has given this book a place in my permanent library is its deep dives into dozens of models. Equations and the diagrams are here, but so are applications. Chapter 11tells us that broadcast, diffusion, and contagion models are used in communication, marketing, and epidemiology. These models are equally useful for how people learn new information or how people catch a disease.

As an example, I might think wearing tight jeans is uncomfortable, but as more people wear tight jeans, I may become more likely to wear them as well. Similar logic applies to my chances of becoming involved in a social movement, adopting a new technology, or getting a tattoo.

Finally, Page reminds us in each chapter to ever be on the alert for the dangers inherent in our work. The tight-jeans example had to allow that the probability of adoption per exposure increased with more exposures. A model that had simply used data on past behavior to estimate future behavior would not have worked because people can learn and respond to changes in their environment. At least for me, caveats like these are appreciated and grounding.

The book includes the following chapters:

Chapter 1 – The Many-Model Thinker
Chapter 2 – Why Model?
Chapter 3 – The Science of Many Models
Chapter 4 – Modeling Human Actors
Chapter 5 – Normal Distributions: The Bell Curve
Chapter 6 – Power-Law Distributions: Long Tails
Chapter 7 – Linear Models
Chapter 8 – Concavity and Convexity
Chapter 9 – Models of Value and Power
Chapter 10 – Network Models
Chapter 11 – Broadcast, Diffusion, and Contagion
Chapter 12 – Entropy: Modeling Uncertainty
Chapter 13 – Random Walks
Chapter 14 – Path Dependence
Chapter 15 – Local Interaction Models
Chapter 16 – Lyapunov Functions and Equilibria
Chapter 17 – Markov Models
Chapter 18 – Systems Dynamics Models
Chapter 19 – Threshold Models with Feedbacks
Chapter 20 – Spatial and Hedonic Choice
Chapter 21 – Game Theory Models Times Three
Chapter 22 – Models of Cooperation
Chapter 23 – Collective Action Problems
Chapter 24 – Mechanism Design
Chapter 25 – Signaling Models
Chapter 26 – Models of Learning
Chapter 27 – Multi-Armed Bandit Problems
Chapter 28 – Rugged-Landscape Models
Chapter 29 – Opioids, Inequality, and Humility

Carol Wells is a Data Scientist and freelance writer. She lives in Portland, Oregon.

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It Looked Different On The Model

Author :Laurie Notaro
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#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER Everyone’s favorite Idiot Girl, Laurie Notaro, is just trying to find the right fit, whether it’s in the adorable blouse that looks charming on the mannequin but leaves her in a literal bind or in her neighborhood after she’s shamefully exposed at a holiday party by delivering a low-quality rendition of “Jingle Bells.” Notaro makes misstep after riotous misstep as she shares tales of marriage and family, including stories about the dog-bark translator that deciphers Notaro’s and her husband’s own “woofs” a little too accurately, the emails from her mother with “FWD” in the subject line (“which in email code means Forecasting World Destruction”), and the dead-of-night shopping sprees and Devil Dog–devouring monkeyshines of a creature known as “Ambien Laurie.” At every turn, Notaro’s pluck and irresistible candor set the New York Times bestselling author on a journey that’s laugh-out-loud funny and utterly unforgettable.

I Love Everybody And Other Atrocious Lies

Author :Laurie Notaro
ISBN :9781588364029
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Here are more scathingly funny tales from the wild side! Laurie Notaro survived the debauched ride of her twenties and the bumpy road to matrimony. Now she’s ready to take on the thirtysomething years . . . and almost middle age has never been more hilarious. Laurie is married, mortgaged, and now—miraculously—employed in the corporate world, discovering that bosses come in all shapes, sizes, and degrees of mental stability. After maxing out her last good credit card at Banana Republic, she’s dressed for success and ready to face the jungle: surviving feral, six-foot-plus Gretchen (“Three Thousand Faces of Eve”) before battling the overbearing, overstuffed (in way-too-small pants) new mom Suzzi, who ruthlessly cancels Laurie’s newspaper column and learns that payback can be a bitch. Laurie also explores the backstabbing world of preschoolers at a Halloween party, the X-rated madness of a family trip to Disneyland, and the pressure from her QVC-addicted mother and the rest of the world to reproduce. But while losing more friends to babies than to booze, she realizes there’s a plus side: at least for a couple of months she gets to be the thinner friend. I Love Everybody (and Other Atrocious Lies) is Laurie Notaro at her deliciously quirky best. Can a woman prone to what her loved ones might term “meltdowns” (she considers them “Opportunities to Enlighten”) put a smile on her face and love everybody? Take a guess.

We Thought You Would Be Prettier

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In a collection of zany, autobiographical anecdotes and tales, the author of I Love Everybody (and Other Atrocious Lies) describes her experiences in a driving school class that resembles a cult recruitment meeting, begging her sister not to get involved with eBay, or yearning to do something about a pet store employee's ridiculous hairstyle. Original. 60,000 first printing.

The Truth On Modeling

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Model For A Better Future

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Before achieving international fame as the world's most photographed supermodel, Kim Alexis was a small-town girl with small-town aspirations. Her Cinderella-like discovery by a New York talent scout whisked her into the glittering but high-pressure world of professional modeling at age eighteen. Kim scarcely had time to catch her breath in the fast-lane life of supermodel, surrounded by superstars, the super-rich, and the super-powerful. The things she witnessed sent her small-town sensibilities reeling: a supermodel friend ho destroyed her life with heroin hairdressers and makeup artists dying of a strange new plague called AIDS casual drug use and immorality at New York's infamous Studio 54 In this deeply personal and powerful book, famed supermodel, actress, athlete, spokesperson, wife, and mother Kim Alexis tells how she escaped the snares and temptations that destroyed many of her peers. With frankness and conviction, warmth and humor, she brings you in close for a one on one conversation on how to build a stable home, how to be an effective parent, and how to combat the moral population that threatens families, communities, and the nation. If you've ever wondered what one person can do to change the world, then this book is for you. 'God works through little people like you and me,' writes Kim Alexis-and in A Model for a Better Future she shows how you can make a difference for a better tomorrow.

Down Fall

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Mine The Gap For Mathematical Understanding Grades 3 5

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Being an effective math educator is one part based on the quality of the tasks we give, one part how we diagnose what we see, and one part what we do with what we find. Yet with so many students and big concepts to cover, it can be hard to slow down enough to look for those moments when students’ responses tell us what we need to know about next best steps. In this remarkable book, John SanGiovanni helps us value our students’ misconceptions and incomplete understandings as much as their correct ones—because it’s the gap in their understanding today that holds the secrets to planning tomorrow’s best teaching. SanGiovanni lays out 180 high-quality tasks aligned to the standards and big ideas of Grades 3-5 mathematics, including addition and subtraction of multi-digit whole numbers, multiplication and division of single and multi-digit whole numbers, foundational fraction concepts, foundational decimal concepts, and operations with fractions and decimals. The tasks are all downloadable so you can use or modify them for instruction and assessment. Each big idea offers a starting task followed by: what makes it a high-quality task what you might anticipate before students work with the task 4 student examples of the completed task showcasing a distinct “gap” commentary on what precisely counts for mathematical understanding and the next instructional steps commentary on the misconception or incomplete understanding so you learn why the student veered off course three additional tasks aligned to the mathematics topic and ideas about what students might do with these additional tasks. It’s time to break our habit of rushing into re-teaching for correctness and instead get curious about the space between right and wrong answers. Mine the Gap for Mathematical Understanding is a book you will return to again and again to get better at selecting tasks that will uncover students’ reasoning—better at discerning the quality and clarity of students’ understanding—and better at planning teaching based on the gaps you see.

There S A Slight Chance I Might Be Going To Hell

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Following her academic husband to a new job in a small college town in Washington, Maye is confronted by the challenges of making new friends and, after a series of missteps, decides to enter the annual Sewer Pipe Queen pageant, a popular local tradition.

Modeling And Computational Methods For Kinetic Equations

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In recent years kinetic theory has developed in many areas of the physical sciences and engineering, and has extended the borders of its traditional fields of application. This monograph is a self-contained presentation of such recently developed aspects of kinetic theory, as well as a comprehensive account of the fundamentals of the theory. Emphasizing modeling techniques and numerical methods, the book provides a unified treatment of kinetic equations not found in more focused works. Specific applications presented include plasma kinetic models, traffic flow models, granular media models, and coagulation-fragmentation problems. The work may be used for self-study, as a reference text, or in graduate-level courses in kinetic theory and its applications.

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Model Breakers

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Model Breakers: Breaking Through Stereotypes and Embracing Your Authenticity explores the intersection of self-awareness, identity, and minority stories. Charlene Wang invites us to change the limiting beliefs we impose on ourselves and break through the stereotypes that can keep us from achieving our dreams. Through the experiences of numerous Model Breakers, this book will help you to take risks and turn disadvantages into powerful tools. This book is for anyone who strives to fearlessly discover, accept and share their story with the world. If you are looking for some inspiration to surpass stumbling blocks in your personal and professional journey, this book is a must-read. Learn how to break through stereotypes and become a Model Breaker!

The Actual Genetic Model Of Perception Personality

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Understanding And Managing Model Risk

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A guide to the validation and risk management of quantitative models used for pricing and hedging Whereas the majority of quantitative finance books focus on mathematics and risk management books focus on regulatory aspects, this book addresses the elements missed by this literature--the risks of the models themselves. This book starts from regulatory issues, but translates them into practical suggestions to reduce the likelihood of model losses, basing model risk and validation on market experience and on a wide range of real-world examples, with a high level of detail and precise operative indications.

The Elephant S Leg

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This book is a response to the question asked by incoming students of the Creative Industries sector: ‘what can I do in the Creative Industries’. This volume is designed to provide a source of inspiration to readers in imagining their own futures within fields such as musical performance, media production, drawing and illustration, journalism, public relations, filmmaking, design, documentary, dramatic performance, virtual reality and others covered in these chapters. Presented here are pathways through the lived experience of the Creative Industries, from practitioners and theorists, educators and researchers at the University of Newcastle, Australia. Each chapter offers a partly autobiographical account of the author’s journey through their field, engaging with their overall philosophy or the key ideas, the challenges and opportunities that have inspired them in their research and creative practice. Some chapters focus on a singular, pivotal moment or project, while others draw upon the breadth of an entire career. Collectively, these accounts bring to life the career possibilities within a rapidly expanding global sector of creativity and innovation with immense cultural, social, political and economic impact.

Is Good Governance Good For Development?

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Governance, Development and Growth critically evaluates conventional ideas about governance and development , highlighting that while good governance is a worthy goal by itself, it is not a prerequisite for economic growth or development as the donor community commonly believes.It looked different on the model pdf free download free

The A Z Of Popular Scooters Microcars

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This is mainly a photographic reference book to classic scooters and microcars with specification data presented in A to Z order of manufacturer. There are also nostalgic recollections by the author based on ownership and personal experience. In the middle 1950s as a teenager Mike Dan became interested in these then newly-arrived forms of transport. Eventually Mike owned a series of scooters and a microcar. He became involved in Scooter and Microcar Clubs and took part in many local and national sporting events gaining a collection of awards and trophies. In the mid 1980s he had time again to visit many indoor and outdoor classic vehicle shows. Eventually this led to a renewed personal involvement in the restoration of a series of over twenty classic scooters and three classic microcars. This highly entertaining book and reference source is therefore written with the authority of a lifetime enthusiast.

Cosmological Clues

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ISBN :9781000331035
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Did the Universe have a beginning? Will it have an end? Or has it always been the same, never changing? This is the subject of cosmology; the study of the Universe, and this book provides a perfect introduction to the subject for anyone that is interested in the wonders of our Universe This book provides an accessible overview of the Standard Model of Cosmology, which is explained in six Cosmological Clues, including evidence for the Big Bang and dark matter and dark energy - the keystones of modern cosmology. It takes readers through some of the most exciting questions in cosmology, such as what evidence do we have that the Universe started from the Big Bang? Has dark matter been observed? Will we ever know what dark energy is? Are the multiverses real? And could the Universe be a hologram? This book is an ideal guide for anyone interested in finding out more about our Universe. It will be of interest to those studying cosmology for the first time, including readers without a scientific background, who have an interest in looking up at the stars and wondering where they all came from! Key features: Contains the latest evidence for the Big Bang, dark matter, and dark energy and explores exciting scientific ideas, such as inflation and multiverses Provides a clear explanation of the main theories of how the Universe evolved based on key observations - the Cosmological Clues Gives the reader a concise introduction to the scientific process, using cosmology as the example, and explores why it has been so successful in creating the technologies we have today

Maintenance Of Strategic Models For Arms Control Analysis

Author :Academy for Interscience Methodology
ISBN :UOM:39015081464698
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Applying Modeling To Everyday Life

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Modeling offers us a way to explain past natural and cultural phenomena, and perhaps more importantly, it gives us mathematical forecasts for the future. This title explores familiar models such as linear regression and computer modeling to show how some aspects of everyday life, such as weather, can be shaped and predicted by mathematics.

The New Yorker

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ISBN :STANFORD:36105007059483
Genre :American wit and humor, Pictorial
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Departments Of Labor Health And Human Services Education And Related Agencies Appropriations For 2004

Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies
ISBN :STANFORD:36105050318778
Genre :United States
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